Reports for Decision Makers in Security & Public Policy

Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I

This 2017 report from the US government includes:

"This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence."

Extreme Weather and Climate Change

The 2017 study by The Centre for Energy and climate solutions presents work that suggests:

"A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today."

Confronting climate change as an accelerator of crisis

"Development in the Arab region has always been complex, but climate change is now acting as an accelerator of fragility, disrupting ecosystems and triggering displacement. Yet despite this growing complexity, decision making remains focused on sectoral, linear approaches. More integrated policies and institutions are needed that address the multi-dimensional nature of risk today"

Climate change: A catalyst for conflict

"The effects of climate change, alongside other social, economic and political components, contribute to the violence with which conflicts are resolved."  

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

The study links climate change to certain extreme events that decision makers will have to predict and prepare for:

"Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts"

Climate and Social Stress:  Implications for Security Analysis(2013)

A study that looks at climate change in the national security and social stress context:

"During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications"

potential impacts of climate change on water, energy, and agriculture will make it a central driver of conflict. The impacts of climate change combine to make it a clear threat to collective security and global order in the first half of the 21st Century.”
— International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2011:11

A main driver or an intermediate variable? Climate change, water and security in the Middle East

"The nexus between climate change and violent conflict is at the center of intensifying political and academic debate. Yet research on the extent and strength of this relationship remains inconclusive and much of the literature is largely empirical, lacking a sufficient theoretical underpinning. This study advances a conceptual framework linking climate change induced droughts and conflict, in potentially iterative relations"

Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security

"projections of a rapidly growing population, coupled with global climate change, is expected to have significant negative impacts on food security"